TTF gas price tops 88 euros, highest since Dec 2022
Gas at the Dutch TTF hub hit its highest level since December 2022 as EU storage sits at a record low before winter, while Brent fell to about $108.
The price of gas at the Dutch TTF hub, the benchmark market for Europe, climbed on October 20 to a level not seen since December 2022. According to the TASS agency, as relayed by N1, the spot price rose to $1,052 per 1,000 cubic meters, or 90.75 euros per megawatt-hour. Data from the Trading Economics platform show a somewhat lower peak, above 88 euros.
Why do the sources disagree on the peak price?
The sources do not give the same figure, so we present each one as it reports it.
- TASS, via N1: the TTF spot price reached $1,052 per 1,000 cubic meters, or 90.75 euros per megawatt-hour.
- Trading Economics: the peak was above 88 euros per megawatt-hour, also the highest since December 2022, and TTF was down to 86.65 euros on October 20, a drop of 1.39 euros, or 1.58%.
Both agree that gas is at its most expensive in almost three years. Which figure is more accurate for the peak itself, the sources do not settle.
The November futures contract on TTF, according to London exchange data cited by N1, rose to about $1,042 per 1,000 cubic meters, or 89.83 euros per megawatt-hour.
How much has gas risen over a month and a year?
Trading Economics says the gas price is up 18.29% over the past month and 169.1% from the same day last year. The platform estimates that TTF could stand at 92.01 euros per megawatt-hour by the end of the quarter and at 111.02 euros in 12 months. That is the platform’s projection, not market data.
Storage and the Middle East
N1 cites record-low storage ahead of the winter season and rising tensions in the Middle East as the causes of the rise. Trading Economics supplies two figures that back this up:
- gas storage in the European Union was 74.47% full on October 19, below the usual level for this time of year
- liquefied natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf are down about 80% from last year
Oil the same day: Brent fell to about $108
While gas climbed, oil eased. Brent fell about 1% on October 20, to almost $108 a barrel, Tanjug reported from London. US crude WTI dropped to about $98 a barrel, near a four-week high, after jumping 10% last week.
The decline followed news that Qatar and Pakistan had put forward a new proposal to restart negotiations on ending the war in Iran. Trading Economics notes that this report has not been confirmed.
Uncertainty over supply remains. Tanjug says reports of a Saudi helicopter crash near the Yemen border, attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on the Yanbu export terminal and hits on two tankers in the Persian Gulf have called into question whether oil flows from the region can be restored.
We previously recorded Brent at about $108 in our article on the price drop after Trump’s executive order on Russia. We had not tracked the gas price until now, and on October 20 the two markets moved in opposite directions: oil eased after news of talks, while gas got more expensive.
