NIS awaits OFAC reply as its operating license expires

The operating license issued by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to Petroleum Industry of Serbia (NIS) expires today, Friday, October 30, 2026, and no answer to the company’s request for a new one had been published as of this morning’s reports. NIS sent its request for a special license to the US Treasury Department on October 24.

Two other permits tied to the company run out the same day: the license that lets the Adria Pipeline (JANAF) transport crude oil to NIS, and the license for talks between Hungary’s MOL and Russia’s Gazprom Neft on taking over a majority stake.

What did NIS ask OFAC for?

The October 24 request is for a special license that would let NIS keep operating after October 30. In it, the company stresses the importance of keeping the domestic market supplied, and says the steady operation of the Pancevo oil refinery is “of key importance for preserving the energy stability of the Republic of Serbia”.

US sanctions on NIS have been in force since October 9, 2025, because of its majority Russian ownership. The company thanked the domestic and foreign institutions that support efforts to let it operate without disruption.

How many times has the license been extended?

NIS’s operating license has been extended more than 20 times over the past two years. Most renewals ran for 30 days, and one was longer: in April 2026 it was extended for 60 days, to June 16.

Most of the analysts who have spoken in recent days expect another extension:

• economist Milan Beslac told Tanjug he expects an extension of at least another 30 days
• Bojan Stanic of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce told TV K1 he expects an extension and would not be surprised if the term is longer; he bases his optimism on warming relations between the US and Russia, on tankers that have set out from Russia for America, and on talks between representatives of the Scandinavian EU countries and Russian President Vladimir Putin
• broker and economic consultant Branislav Jorgic said an extension would be the rational solution, adding that political factors will also shape the final agreement on ownership

Where does the MOL takeover of NIS stand?

On January 19, 2026, MOL announced it had signed the main provisions of a binding framework agreement with Gazprom Neft to buy its 56.15% stake in NIS. At the time the group was also in talks with ADNOK, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, about joining the ownership structure as a minority shareholder.

Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic signed a shareholders’ agreement with the MOL group on June 16. It takes effect only if MOL and Gazprom Neft reach a deal and OFAC approves it. Under it, Serbia would buy an additional 5% of NIS shares, and the refinery would run for at least 10 years at the capacity it had four years before the sanctions. The ministry said then that the sale and purchase agreement between MOL and Gazprom Neft was still being finalized.

What do NIS’s nine-month results show?

NIS also released results for the group for January to September 2026 today. Net profit came to 23.1 billion dinars (about 197 million euros at roughly 117.5 dinars to the euro, converted by the newsroom), and EBITDA to 59.7 billion dinars (about 508 million euros). For the first quarter, the company had earlier reported net profit of almost 2.8 billion dinars (23.8 million euros).

The company attributes the result to a higher oil price, larger refining margins and inventories bought at lower prices. Brent averaged 94 dollars a barrel in the period, against 70.9 dollars a year earlier. The statement reads:

“In the period from January to September 2026, the NIS Group operated in extremely complex conditions. In order to preserve the stability of the domestic oil derivatives market and uninterrupted operations, NIS continued in this period as well with strict financial discipline and optimization of operating costs at all levels.”

Other figures from the statement:

• bank debt fell from 539.5 million euros to 357.4 million euros
• operating cash flow was positive, at 31.8 billion dinars
• accrued public revenue liabilities come to 170.8 billion dinars
• investment totaled 19.2 billion dinars, mostly in oil and gas exploration and production
• derivatives sales were 2.4 million tons, and oil and gas output was 834,000 tons of oil equivalent

The Pancevo refinery processed 2.6 million tons of crude oil and semi-finished products, and its processing capacity rose to about 13,000 tons a day. A modernized industrial rail track worth almost 3.8 billion dinars went into service in Pancevo, while a major overhaul of HIP Petrohemija began at the end of the third quarter. NIS’s solar panels generated 12.4 thousand MWh, about three times as much as in the same period of 2025.

The positive result comes with a deadline that falls the same day: if OFAC neither issues a new license nor extends the current one, the company will have no valid operating permit after October 30. The US Treasury Department’s answer had not been made public by the time this article was published.