NSPM Poll: Student List 1.8 Points Ahead of Vucic

New Serbian Political Thought (NSPM), a research portal edited by Djordje Vukadinovic, published its autumn public opinion survey on October 20, five days before the parliamentary election on October 25. Among decided voters who say they will turn out, the Student List “Students Win” stands at 44.5 percent and the “Aleksandar Vucic, United Serbia” list at 42.7 percent. The gap is 1.8 percentage points.

How was the poll conducted?

The survey was done by telephone on a representative sample of 1,050 respondents, with fieldwork running from September 25 to October 5. According to NSPM, it was carried out for its own purposes, with no client. The last interviews were therefore completed fifteen days before the results were published.

List percentages are calculated among respondents who stated a preference. The undecided, meaning those who do not know whom they would vote for or refuse to say, made up 18.3 percent of all respondents and are not counted.

Which lists are below the threshold?

According to the survey as reported by Beta, three lists are close to the three percent electoral threshold but under it:

• “Ivica Dacic, Stability Factor” has 2.9 percent
• “European Serbia, Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos” has 2.7 percent
• “Authentic Right, Milos Jovanovic” has 2.5 percent

All remaining lists together have two percent. Another 2.7 percent of respondents said they are against the government but do not know exactly whom they would vote for. The daily Danas says in its report that all lists except the two leading ones, along with the minority lists, are below the threshold though close to it, including Ivica Dacic’s Socialist Party of Serbia.

Is the gap larger than the margin of error?

NSPM did not publish a margin of error. For a sample of 1,050 respondents it comes to roughly three points in either direction, so the 1.8 point gap is smaller than that. The list percentages also rest on fewer people than the full sample, because the undecided were excluded, which widens the margin.

Vukadinovic stressed on X that this is a finding of the regular autumn survey, not a projection of election results. He said a projection may be published in the coming days, after additional polling among young people, state sector employees and pensioners. Explaining why he published the results anyway, he wrote: “We thought about perhaps not publishing anything before the election.” He added that attacks his portal had endured over earlier findings pushed him to publish.

In the same post, Vukadinovic writes about the state of the election process: “Serbia under this government has slipped below even the minimal threshold of so-called ‘electoral democracy,’” wrote the NSPM editor, adding that publishing any results in such circumstances can create an impression of a “normal” election process.

How many voters say they will turn out?

Asked about October 25, 79.8 percent of respondents said they will definitely vote, and another 13.3 percent said they probably will. Some 2.0 percent said they probably will not, 3.2 percent said they definitely will not, and 1.7 percent had no answer. On that basis NSPM estimates turnout at almost 80 percent.

What respondents think about the government and the country’s future

Asked what would be better for Serbia, 44 percent of respondents chose a victory for the students and the opposition. The current government staying in power is preferred by 22.5 percent, and another 19 percent want it to stay with some changes (the Nova Beta report puts this at “almost 20 percent”).

Aleksandar Vucic’s performance as president is rated poor by 44.5 percent of respondents and good by 41.8 percent, while 13.7 percent have no opinion. For 48.1 percent, the student movement and the Student List are an expression of domestic discontent with the government, while 26.8 percent believe it is an operation by foreign services. In a hypothetical referendum on European Union membership, 41.3 percent would vote in favor and 39.6 percent against. Holding the specialized international Expo exhibition in Belgrade in 2027 is not supported by 43.6 percent of respondents.

What Vucic said the same day

Aleksandar Vucic, who heads the “United Serbia” list, spoke on Informer TV the same day about the gap between polls. His statement, carried by Kurir, does not mention NSPM, but it concerns the same subject:

“Now the gap is only 1.5 percent, and it used to be 20 percent in their favor. That’s right. It’s 1.5 percent now. We’ve made progress. It was even more than 20 percent. So, what matters is concentrating on election day.”

Vucic added that if his list loses the election, he would congratulate his opponents at 10 or 10:30 in the evening. The gap he cites is not a figure from the NSPM poll, which records 1.8 points between the two leading lists.