Vucic on K1: Betting Odds of 47 to 38 and a Vote Gap
Vucic hopes to win by several hundred thousand votes and compares Nis with Slavija, while the Public Gatherings Archive put the SNS rally in Nis at about 19,000 people.
Aleksandar Vucic, the head of the “Aleksandar Vucic United Serbia” list, said on the K1 television show “Uranak” that he hopes to win by several hundred thousand votes but expects a tight race. He appeared on October 22, the last day of the campaign, as a guest of host Jovana Joksimovic.
Vucic had already announced the election-night result earlier, on Informer TV. On “Uranak” he narrowed the deadline to the latest possible:
“The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) will be late, but I will tell you the precise result around half past ten at the latest.”
Asked what happens if the Student List comes out and says it won, Vucic answered with a question of his own: “And what of it?”
How did Vucic respond to the betting odds?
The numbers 47 and 38 came from the host, not from Vucic. Bookmakers, the question went, give the “United Serbia” list 47 percent and the “Student List” 38 percent. Vucic replied that bookmakers offer the only realistic poll and that both sides will end up a percentage point above those forecasts.
“The only realistic poll is the one the bookmakers give, because people do not want to lose money. Both of us will get a percentage point more than those forecasts. Elections are the only litmus test, the only one. In Belgrade they said we would have 57, and we got 64, I am talking about the number of seats. Elections can change a lot.”
Asked whether he still expects a convincing win, he said he still hopes so, with a caveat about polls in general:
“I expect a tight race. Do I expect us to win by several hundred thousand? Do I hope we win by several hundred thousand votes? Yes, I do. Now, any poll you get, hang it on a cat’s tail, because elections are the only real poll. And many polls are being slipped through right now.”
He added that you never know exactly and that elections can change a lot. On the oversight of the vote, he said:
“If we win, no foreign embassy or anyone else will steal that victory.”
He closed with his verdict on the campaign: “But I am satisfied because we had a clean, nice, honest, fair campaign.” He described his opponents’ campaign videos as dark and said they “breathe hatred.”
What does the Public Gatherings Archive say about the Nis rally?
Asked why the list chose Hala sportova (the Sports Hall) and whether that was because the Student List has a rally at Slavija, which, as the question put it, is claimed to be the biggest ever seen in Belgrade, Vucic asked whether anyone serious says that. He then compared it with Nis:
“Let them compare last night’s rally in Nis, where there were many more people than they will have tonight in Belgrade.”
He added that Belgrade is six times bigger than Nis. Elsewhere in the conversation he also said the Student List will tonight “have 30,000 people but talk about 500 million people,” and that filling that square is not easy.
For Nis there is an estimate from a third party. The informal organization Public Gatherings Archive posted on X last night that about 19,000 people attended the final pre-election SNS rally on the central square. The figure comes from calculating the area of the rally and the average crowd density, based on drone footage taken at 6:25 p.m. The rally began at 6 p.m., and besides Vucic it was addressed by former Serbian president Tomislav Nikolic and former Republika Srpska president Milorad Dodik.
Vucic also talked about the city itself. He said the list is weaker in Medijana than in other parts of Nis, but that he expects an improvement:
“In all the other parts of Nis, in Pantelej, Niska Banja, Palilula, Crveni Krst, we stand much better than in Medijana itself, although I expect the result to improve in Medijana too, that is, where we held that rally. But that square is complicated, it is not easy at all, because even when they held their big rally recently with 6,000 to 6,500 people, they filled the main plateau.”
The estimate for Nis, then, came from an organization that counts crowds, while for Slavija the conversation contains only Vucic’s own figure. The Student List’s response to his claims is not part of the material this article is based on.
Nis, he said, is easier to win than Novi Sad, and on employers he stated:
“Yesterday in Nis I looked, and we brought in 4 of the 5 big employers.”
That is his claim, with no source given.
What will Vucic talk about at Hala sportova?
The final United Serbia rally is being held at Hala sportova in New Belgrade. Vucic said he will speak about the program for Belgrade and for all of Serbia: health care, infrastructure development, education, agriculture and attracting domestic and foreign investment.
“I want us to have messages from our program, since others cannot talk about theirs, so that people can hear something extra, even though I think we really did talk at length and in detail, especially about health care, infrastructure development, education, all the way to agriculture and further attracting domestic and foreign investment. But I want us to repeat it once more at Hala sportova in New Belgrade.”
On October 22 the “United Serbia” list also has rallies in 150 cities and villages across Serbia, and the election silence begins at midnight.
