Serbia Turnout Hits 34.55% by Noon, Up From 21.33% in 2023

The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) said on Sunday, October 25, that 34.55 percent of registered voters had cast ballots by noon in Serbia’s snap parliamentary elections, not counting Kosovo and Metohija. At the same hour in the previous parliamentary elections, on December 17, 2023, turnout was 21.33 percent, which is 13.22 percentage points lower.

The figures were presented at RIK’s third press conference by Branko Josipovic, director of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Polling stations are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Eighteen lists are running, and about 6.45 million voters are registered.

What did RIK report by region?

According to the schedule announced for election day, RIK holds press conferences at 8:00, 11:05, 13:05, 15:05, 17:05 and 19:05, and each one reports the data for the previous full hour. At the second conference, around 11:05, Josipovic said that 19.72 percent of voters had voted by 10 a.m. By region, turnout at 10 a.m. was:

• Vojvodina 23.62 percent
• Belgrade region 20.46 percent
• southern and eastern Serbia 17.4 percent
• Sumadija and western Serbia 17.08 percent

By noon, according to RIK, turnout was:

• Belgrade region 35.23 percent
• Sumadija and western Serbia 32.56 percent
• southern and eastern Serbia 31.96 percent
• Vojvodina: sources differ, with B92 and Nedeljnik reporting 38.08 percent and Mondo 38.80 percent

How did the same hour look in earlier elections?

An hour-by-hour comparison is possible for three of the last four parliamentary elections:

• December 17, 2023: 9.94 percent by 10 a.m., 21.33 percent by noon. Final turnout was 58.77 percent.
• April 3, 2022: 9.59 percent by 10 a.m., 20.52 percent by noon, out of 6,502,307 registered voters, as announced at the time at a RIK conference by Statistical Office director Miladin Kovacevic. Those elections were held together with the presidential vote. Final turnout was 58.6 percent.
• June 21, 2020: 18.01 percent by noon in central Serbia. Final turnout was 48.93 percent, in an election boycotted by much of the opposition.
• April 24, 2016: final turnout was 56.07 percent. RIK’s figures for 10 a.m. and noon could not be found on the commission’s website or in any media report from that day, so 2016 is left out of the hourly comparison.

Turnout in parliamentary elections last topped 60 percent on May 11, 2008, when about 61.3 percent of registered voters took part.

What did CeSID, Ipsos and Crta estimate separately?

These organizations work from a sample of polling stations, so their figures cannot be mixed with RIK’s data. As we reported on October 23, CeSID and Ipsos publish turnout at five points during the day, and the first readings are in:

• CeSID and Ipsos, sample of 750 polling stations: 12 percent by 9 a.m. and 27.3 percent by 11 a.m., based on estimates from 94.8 percent of the processed sample. For 2023 the same hour shows 15.1 percent at 11 a.m., and 5.2 percent at 9 a.m. according to Nedeljnik, while the blog 24sedam recorded 4.8 percent on December 17, 2023.
• Crta, sample of 500 polling stations and more than 2,000 observers: 19.8 percent by 10 a.m., against 9.8 percent at the same hour in 2023. By 1 p.m. Crta estimates 41.1 percent and puts the 2023 figure at 26.6 percent, a gap of 14.5 percentage points.
• Ipsos, as reported by Novosti: 19.5 percent by 10 a.m.

What comes next today?

RIK’s next update covers 2 p.m. For that hour in 2023, Nedeljnik reports 32.38 percent and the blog 24sedam, writing on December 17, 2023, 32.3 percent. For 2022, Danas reported that day that RIK announced 31.56 percent, while Vreme, on April 3, 2022, cited 29.8 percent and also attributed it to RIK, so those sources conflict. For 2020, RIK recorded 26.11 percent by 2 p.m., not counting Kosovo and Metohija.

Crta has announced conferences for 4:30 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. Polling stations close at 8 p.m.