Vucic Concedes Defeat: Student List 135-140 Seats

Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat for his list in the snap parliamentary elections tonight at the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) election headquarters in Belgrade, citing a stratified sample rather than final results. The leader of the Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia list estimated that the Student List will win between 135 and 140 of the 250 seats, and his own list about 105.

Polls closed at 8 p.m., and 18 lists competed for the 250 seats. Vucic addressed supporters at about 9:30 p.m., ahead of the time previously announced: the headquarters had said he would speak between 10 and 10:30 p.m., once the list had precise data. Milorad Dodik and Aleksandar Seselj arrived at the headquarters alongside the list’s officials.

What Did Vucic Say About Seats and Votes?

He opened by noting that there are no final results. “Many will be surprised, and you will realize how much some people lied,” he said, before giving his estimate: “Based on the stratified sample, it is clear that we lost these elections.”

He laid out the numbers this way: “The student-blockader list won, it will have between 135 and 140 seats, and we about 105.” That was his name for the Student List. By the same estimate it has about 2,200,000 votes and his list about 1,720,000. “So we have somewhere around 1,720,000, I am telling you based on the sample, it is completely irrelevant,” Vucic said.

On the other lists he said: “No one else got into parliament.” The exception, by his account, is the minority lists: Vojvodina Hungarians with three seats and Albanians with one, “and I think the SDA, don’t hold me to my word.” Newsmax Balkans reports one seat for the Vojvodina Hungarians in its coverage, while other reports speak of three.

Later in the same address he put the figure differently: “We will have 105-106 MPs, and we will fight and show them what an opposition is.” Before the election he spoke on K1 about odds of 47 to 38 and the gap in votes, which we reported on October 22. Tonight’s numbers are his first estimate of the outcome since polls closed.

What Do Other Estimates and RIK Data Show?

The figures other parties released tonight are not final and cannot be read as a single series, because they differ in sample size and in how many polling stations have been counted.

• RIK, the Republic Electoral Commission, released its first preliminary results based on 203 polling stations counted: the United Serbia list had 54.69 percent of the vote, the Student List 36.04 percent, and the Ivica Dacic - Stability Factor list 3.7 percent, with turnout at 68.84 percent.
• Ipsos and CeSID, based on 56 percent of the sample processed, reported that the Student List won 52 percent of the vote, the Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia list 39.3 percent, and the Ivica Dacic - Stability Factor list 2.3 percent. All other lists are below one percent.
• According to initial CeSID data, the Student List has 139 seats and United Serbia 104.
• Crta program director Rasa Nedeljkov said the Student List won 51.47 percent of the vote and the Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia list 40.42 percent.

As Vucic himself said, no one has yet published final results.

Messages to Members and Opponents

Vucic spoke of the party’s future as that of an opposition force: “I am proud of everything we have done, some people will leave us, but our structure is very solid.” He added: “Most of us have spent more time in opposition than in power.” He also rejected claims that the list would refuse to recognize the results: “And as for us not recognizing it, so I will announce different results?” Reports of the address say nothing about the makeup of a future government.

He tied the election to outside support for his opponents:

“They tried to bring us down, I want people to know, this was the verification of the revolution carried out with the support of directly various European countries and the deep American state, the one that is against President Trump.”

He also claimed that his list won in the region: “We won everywhere Serbs live, that is, in the region, in Republika Srpska, Montenegro, North Macedonia, everywhere.”

He congratulated Natasa Kandic: “I congratulate Natasa Kandic, her politics won.” Then he added: “I wish them all the best, and we will fight.” He also said: “I saw all of this back in 2000.” On sanctions he said: “By March or April, you will have sanctions imposed in the Russian Federation.”

Of journalists at N1 and Nova S he said: “As for the filthiest scum, at N1 and Nova S and the rest, every word they spoke they lied.” The material available to us contains no response from those newsrooms.

Reactions and What Comes Next

Celebrations began at the Student List headquarters with the song “Come on, city, everyone with our young people,” and car horns and singing were heard on streets across Serbia, Danas reports. Student List candidate and former basketball international Dejan Bodiroga said he had expected the victory and that youth had won today.

Until final results arrive, the count of the remaining polling stations continues. The head of the ODIHR observation mission, Owen Murphy, announced that preliminary conclusions on the conduct of the election will be presented on Monday, October 26.