CeSID and Ipsos project 140 seats for Student List
Based on 96 percent of the sample, the Student List wins 140 of 250 seats, Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia gets 103, and four more lists share seven.
According to the seat projection released by CeSID and Ipsos after midnight on October 26, the “Student List - Students Win” slate gets 140 of 250 parliamentary seats, and “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia” gets 103. Every figure in this article is the two agencies’ estimate based on 96 percent of the processed sample, not a tally announced by the Republic Electoral Commission.
CeSID published the projection on its @CeSIDBeograd account on X, describing it as: “Final projection of seat distribution, based on 96% of the processed sample”.
How are all 250 seats distributed?
Under the projection, six lists share the seats:
- “Student List - Students Win”: 140
- “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia”: 103
- “Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians - Dr. Balint Pastor”: 3
- “Albanian Coalition - Koalicioni Shqiptar”: 2
- “Rasim Ljajic - Human (SDP-CDP)”: 1
- “SDA of Sandzak - Guardians of Sandzak”: 1
By the same projection, no other list wins a seat.
What vote shares are projected for each list?
At 96 percent of the sample, CeSID reported 52.9 percent for the Student List and 38.8 percent for “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia”. The “Ivica Dacic - Stability Factor” list stands at 2.2 percent, while the threshold for entering parliament is three percent (it does not apply to national minority lists).
Among the other lists, CeSID reports:
- “Authentic Right - Milos Jovanovic”: 0.9 percent
- “Bogoljub Karic - Serbian Power Movement - BK”: 0.5 percent
- “European Serbia - Marinika Tepic - Zdravko Ponos”: 0.3 percent
- “Liberal Green Party” and “Vladimir Gajic - Alternative for Serbia”: 0.1 percent each
- “I Choose Justice, I Choose the Future”: 0 percent
Minority lists: the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians 0.9 percent, the Albanian Coalition 0.7, Rasim Ljajic - Human 0.5, SDA of Sandzak 0.3, Usame Zukorlic’s Movement for Unification 0.3, the Russian Party - Serbia in BRICS 0.2 and the Party of Russian Serbian Unity 0.1 percent.
What did the earlier cuts show?
CeSID and Ipsos updated the projection through the evening. At 56 percent of the sample, around 10:25 p.m., the Student List had 139 seats and “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia” 104, with 52 and 39.3 percent of the vote respectively. At 11:35 p.m., with 75 percent of the sample in, the agencies put the Student List at 52.4 percent, Vucic’s list at 39.2 and the Stability Factor at 2.2. The final projection thus moved one seat from the second list to the first.
The first Republic Electoral Commission figure arrived earlier, from 203 counted polling stations: “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia” 54.69 percent, the Student List 36.04, the Stability Factor 3.7 percent. That is a different source, a different sample and a different point in time than the agencies’ projection, so the two sets of numbers cannot be compared directly.
Aleksandar Vucic himself said at the Serbian Progressive Party’s election headquarters that there were no final results, but that he knew the outcome from the sample:
“We don’t have final results. Many will be surprised, and you will realize how much some people lied and everything they made up. I want to inform you that the student-blockader list has won. It will have between 135 and 140 seats, we about 105.”
He also offered an estimate of the vote: “So we have somewhere around 1,720,000, I’m telling you based on the sample, it’s completely irrelevant. They have around 2,200,000.”
What do CeSID and Ipsos say about turnout?
CeSID and Ipsos put final turnout at 69.3 percent. Other figures come from other players. After polls closed, the Student List said turnout without the diaspora was 69.1 percent, and Crta said it expected turnout above 70 percent and announced a final projection later in the day.
The Republic Electoral Commission did not release a turnout figure for 8 p.m. Its last regular figure is 64.89 percent as of 6 p.m., which, according to Nedeljnik, is 12.96 percentage points higher than at the same hour in the December 17, 2023 elections, when the cut stood at 51.93 percent.
