Djokovic Ninth in Turin Race, Only Paris Left on Schedule
Losing to Hubert Hurkacz costs him 390 points and a top-10 place, but ninth in the race still leads to Turin. Novak plans to play only the Paris Masters before season's end.
Novak Djokovic left Beijing with the 102nd title of his career, then stayed in Shanghai just long enough to lose in the first round to Hubert Hurkacz. The man who beat Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur within 48 hours in China has now dropped out of the world top ten, and his place in the race for the Finals in Turin hangs on ninth spot.
How much does Shanghai cost him in the ATP rankings?
Losing on the opening day of the tournament means 390 fewer points on the next ATP list. Djokovic falls at least three places, to 11th, and is out of the top ten again. According to Sport Klub, he spent only about two weeks in it, roughly the time since the Beijing title.
The drop carries sporting weight too. This was his 960th week in the top ten, and the record belongs to Roger Federer with 968. Djokovic is eight weeks short of that number, but he cannot collect them from 11th place.
Where does Djokovic stand in the Turin race?
In the race for the Finals he is ninth with 2,840 points. His record this year is 19 wins and 8 losses, and as many as 15 of those wins came at three tournaments: the Australian Open, Wimbledon and Beijing. That leaves four wins from every other event this season, which shows how thin the base under ninth place is.
Ninth place is worth more than usual right now. Jannik Sinner has confirmed he is done for the season, so the cut-off moves down one spot and ninth position carries the eighth and last ticket to Turin. Sport Klub makes the same point, writing that Sinner is certain not to play and that Djokovic would be among the participants if the tournament started now.
Who can overtake him?
There is a crowd behind him, and the gaps are small next to what is on offer in Shanghai:
- Alex de Minaur trails by 110 points
- Rafael Jodar trails by 321 points
- Taylor Fritz trails by 350 points
- Jakub Mensik trails by 395 points
Any of them can pass him with a result in Shanghai. More tournaments follow that Djokovic will skip, and players who want to reach Turin will be collecting points there. From October 19 the 250-level events are played in Almaty, Lyon and Brussels, a week later the 500s in Basel and Vienna, and from November 2 the Paris Masters with 1,000 points.
Sources disagree about Stockholm. RTS reports that the tournament following Paris does not count toward the Turin race, while Sport Klub sees it as the last chance to pick up points.
Why only Paris?
After the loss in Shanghai, Djokovic said:
“I would like to play at the Finals. I plan to play only in Paris, so we’ll see.”
That makes Paris the only place where he can top up his tally. Sport Klub assesses that this very plan could cost him a spot, because unlike the years when he dominated that tournament and won it seven times, he can no longer count on a good result with the same certainty. The same outlet says he might consider adding Vienna or Basel, but that raises the risk of a repeat of China: just as Beijing wore him out for Shanghai, Vienna or Basel could drain him before Paris.
Sport Klub sees one more unknown in the exhibition in Riyadh, played a week before Vienna and Basel. It reports that the event is in doubt because of the security situation in the region.
The math is simple and not pleasant. One tournament, 1,000 points on offer, and rivals who play everything they can until then. Djokovic has won Paris seven times, and the tournament starts on November 2. By then the four players behind him will have played Shanghai and the events in Almaty, Lyon, Brussels, Basel and Vienna, and he will have played none of them.
