Struff Beats Djokovic in Basel, Turin Hopes Fade

At 4-4 in the third set, with Struff serving at 30-40, Novak Djokovic reached his sixth break point of the match. After a superb point at the net, Jan-Lennard Struff got out of that one too, held serve and went ahead 5-4. That was how the whole night went in Basel: Djokovic was constantly one step from a break, and each time Struff shut the door with his serve or a trip to the net.

The ATP 500 round-of-16 match was played on Thursday, October 29, on Center Court, fourth on the schedule and not before 6 p.m. Struff won 6-7 (4-7), 7-5, 7-6 (7-5), beating Djokovic for the first time in their ninth meeting. Before that, the Serbian led 8-0. Sources disagree on the first-set tiebreak: RTS records it as 7-4 for Djokovic, while the live broadcast on Sport Klub shows 7-3.

How did Struff beat Djokovic for the first time?

The first set was decided by a tiebreak. Struff served twice to stay in the set and was solid both times, but Djokovic used his errors in the breaker, went up 4-1 and, with three set points in a row, closed it out on the second.

The second set was the one in which Novak could have ended the match. He had two consecutive break points in the third game, a third in the fifth and a fourth at 5-5. Struff saved every one. Then came the punishment: in the 12th game Djokovic double-faulted three times on his own serve, and the German converted the only break point he had in that set to level the match at 1-1. On one of those points Struff clipped the line with a second serve, and Novak shouted to his team: “What a line.”

After the match, Djokovic did not look for an excuse in the double faults:

“I don’t think the three double faults were the deciding factor.”

There was no break in the deciding set, so a tiebreak settled it again. Djokovic led 2-1, but Struff came forward aggressively to reach 4-2 and then 6-3, with three match points. Novak saved the first two, the second with an ace. The German answered in kind on his own serve and finished the match with an ace on the third match point.

Just before the match, Struff spoke to ATPTour.com about the record awaiting him (translated from Serbian): “My head-to-head record against Novak is not exactly great. But whose record against Novak is great?” For the world No. 47 it was a first win over Djokovic, and he arrived in good form: he had won five of his last six matches, including the final in Brussels.

What do the numbers say?

According to the statistics carried by RTS, the winner took the total points count 114-113. Struff hit 27 aces to Djokovic’s 21 and had 66 winners to 43, but also 38 unforced errors to the Serbian’s 18. At the net he won 29 of 38 points.

The most important number is the one on break points:

• Djokovic had six break points and converted none.
• Struff converted one of his three chances, in the 12th game of the second set.
• The German held all 18 of his service games.

Novak landed 68 percent of his first serves and won 81 percent of the points behind them, while Struff made 64 percent and won 83 percent. The difference did not show up in the percentages but in a handful of points in the critical games, and Djokovic recognized that himself:

“I don’t remember playing someone who was so aggressive and so precise.”

Djokovic had returned to Basel for the first time since 2011, at the organizers’ invitation, at a tournament where he holds the record with seven titles. In the first round he beat Frenchman Hugo Humbert in three sets, and Struff beat Jannik Hanfmann 6-4, 6-3 in 70 minutes. The German now meets Nuno Borges in the quarterfinals.

What does Djokovic need in Paris to reach Turin?

Djokovic currently has 2,890 points in the race to the ATP Finals. RTS lists him 11th and Sport Klub tenth, so his position differs between the two sources while the points stay the same. According to RTS, because Sinner is absent, the last place that leads to Turin is ninth, held by Rafael Jodar with 3,209 points. Jodar lost in Basel to Valentin Vacherot, so Novak still trails by 319 points.

Tenth in the race is Alex de Minaur with 2,930 points, 40 more than Djokovic. He plays Matteo Berrettini in the Vienna quarterfinals on Friday, and Berrettini’s match opens another question: RTS reports that Flavio Cobolli retired against Berrettini at 2-5 with a muscle injury. Cobolli is sixth in the race with 3,680 points, and if he drops out, tenth place also leads to Turin. The Italian’s condition is still unknown.

RTS’s math for Paris, where the winner of the Masters event earns 1,000 points:

• a quarterfinal brings 200 points and is not enough if Cobolli is healthy;
• a semifinal brings 400, for a total of 3,290, and Novak would then have to watch his rivals’ results;
• a final brings 650, for a total of 3,540, which would be enough.

Sport Klub reaches the same conclusion: Djokovic needs at least a semifinal in Paris. Behind him are Taylor Fritz and Tommy Paul with 2,785 and 2,725 points, who can still overtake him, and Fritz can do so only if he reaches the final in Basel. The Paris draw is on Friday evening, and it will determine who Novak meets first. Djokovic himself said he would think about Paris over the coming days:

“I just came off the court, so I’m still disappointed. I’ll think about Paris over the next few days and I hope I’ll play better there.”