Cvijanovic, Becirovic and Filipovic Lead Bosnia Presidency

Serbia has a stake in who sits in the Sarajevo Presidency, and the Serb seat is still held by Zeljka Cvijanovic of the SNSD, the party of Milorad Dodik. According to preliminary results released on October 5 by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina, she leads the race for the Serb member, Denis Becirovic leads for the Bosniak member, and Darijana Filipovic of the HDZ BiH leads for the Croat member. A day earlier we reported turnout of 11.94 percent by 11 a.m. and scanners that arrived late. Now the first vote counts are in.

How many polling stations have been counted?

The snapshot carried by N1, updated on October 5 at 7:30 a.m., says 3,060 of 3,177 polling stations, or 96.31 percent, had been processed for the Bosniak and Croat members. For the Serb member, 1,944 of 2,082 stations were processed, a share N1 gives as 92.27 percent. The arithmetic works out to about 93.4 percent, so the figure of 138 unprocessed stations matches the count of processed ones, while the percentage in the source does not. The 96 percent figure therefore applies only to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, not to both races.

The commission treats all results as preliminary. In that snapshot, the categories for mail-in votes, absentee votes, mobile teams, diplomatic and consular missions and confirmed ballots were still entered as zero, so both the numbers and the percentages can change.

Who leads the race for the Serb member?

Cvijanovic has the most votes and, according to Danas, stays in the Presidency for another four years. Danas reports 288,606 votes after 89.14 percent of stations in Republika Srpska were counted, while another article in the same paper, citing 95.93 percent of stations, gives 285,062. RTS, working from 91 percent of stations, published 284,934. N1 does not list a figure for Cvijanovic in its snapshot.

Her challengers are far behind combined. Marinko Bozovic of the SDS has 138,809 votes, and Nebojsa Vukanovic of the Za pravdu i red party has 94,174 (N1 data). According to Danas, Vukanovic is the only party leader in Republika Srpska who does not back the current government in Serbia. Cvijanovic won 327,720 votes in 2022, and Danas describes her current result as a drop to 285,062. Bozovic got about 88,000 fewer votes than Mirko Sarovic did four years earlier.

Where do sources differ on the Bosniak and Croat members?

Two outlets attribute different figures to the same commission, so we list them separately:

• Becirovic: 211,489 votes according to N1, 210,483 according to Danas
• Bakir Izetbegovic: 167,795 according to N1, 187,753 according to Danas
• Semir Efendic: 141,215 according to N1, 141,315 according to Danas
• Fahrudin Radoncic: 11,632 according to N1, 11,852 according to Danas

The largest gap is in the Croat race. N1 writes that Darijana Filipovic has 129,158 votes and Zdenko Lucic 29,754. Danas gives 109,168 for Filipovic and 53,724 for Lucic, and in a second article, after 95.93 percent of stations, 108,952 for her. Slaven Kovacevic of the Democratic Front has 71,568 votes in both sources. Until the commission publishes final data, none of these versions can be declared correct.

Filipovic is the only new member of the Presidency, since Becirovic and Cvijanovic continue their terms. Danas assesses that she received far fewer votes than Borjana Kristo did four years ago, more than 180,000, and attributes this to lower turnout, a second candidate from the Croat opposition camp, and the absence of Bosniak votes for Kovacevic. Zeljko Komsic won 227,540 votes in 2022. Becirovic now has about 120,000 fewer votes than he did then.

How high was turnout?

According to the commission’s official data, turnout is 42.02 percent, and Danas writes that about 50 percent of voters cast ballots in 2022. By 5 p.m., according to Danas, 40.47 percent of voters had voted in Banja Luka, 36.94 in Bijeljina, 36.51 in Doboj, 31.19 in Zenica, 28.33 in Tuzla and 28.26 percent in Prijedor. In Sarajevo Canton, 30.54 percent had voted.

What do the parliamentary results show?

For the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, after 92.3 percent of stations were processed, N1 records the following order:

• SDA: 240,762 votes, 19.89 percent
• SNSD: 199,082 votes, 16.44 percent
• SDP BiH: 113,704 votes, 9.39 percent
• coalition around the HDZ BiH: 96,884 votes, 8 percent
• Drasko Stanivukovic’s Sigurna Srpska movement: 72,565 votes, 5.99 percent

In the House of Representatives of the Federation parliament, the SDA won 238,116 votes or 24.40 percent in 2022, and now has 229,213 or 30.63 percent. The SDP fell from 131,328 votes (13.46 percent) to 115,260 (15.40 percent), and the coalition around the HDZ BiH from 130,566 (13.38) to 101,432 (13.56). Absolute numbers are falling while shares are rising, which Danas links to lower turnout.

In Republika Srpska, the SNSD declared victory on election night. According to RTRS, Dodik said:

“I declare victory at all levels. Thank you all. This result is similar to the one 20 years ago. We thank all the people who stood with us. More than 120,000 people passed through our rallies.”

Savo Minic of the SNSD leads the race for president of Republika Srpska. Stanivukovic, as reported by RTS, said his movement will not form a coalition with the SNSD: “The SNSD will form the Government of Srpska, but we will be a strong opposition and we will fight for our programs and platforms.”