IMF Raises Serbia's 2026 Growth Forecast to 3.3%
In Bangkok, the Fund released its new World Economic Outlook: Serbia to grow 3.3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, the world economy 3.1% this year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for the Serbian economy this year to 3.3%, up from the 2.8% it projected in April and June. The new figures came out on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, in the autumn edition of the World Economic Outlook, at the annual meetings of the Fund and the World Bank in Bangkok.
For 2027, the Fund projects Serbian gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4%. Real growth last year was 2.0%, so if the forecast holds, the economy would double its pace from 2% to 4% within two years. The Bangkok meetings began on Monday, October 12, and run until October 18.
What does the IMF expect for Serbia through 2027?
For Serbia, the Fund lists four indicators, each for 2025, 2026 and 2027:
- real GDP growth: 2.0%, 3.3% and 4.0%
- consumer price growth: 3.9%, 3.1% and 4.2%
- unemployment rate: 8.7%, 8.6% and 8.5%
- current account deficit, as a percentage of GDP: 4.9%, 4.6% and 3.5%
The current account deficit, in other words, is set to narrow by 1.4 percentage points in two years, while unemployment edges down by a tenth of a point each year. Prices tell a different story: after 3.1% this year, the Fund expects inflation to pick up to 4.2% in 2027.
Annual inflation in Serbia was 4.1% in September, as we reported when it emerged that water had become 21.8% more expensive. That is above the Fund’s estimate for the whole of 2026. The comparison is rough: the excerpts from the report available to us do not say whether the 3.1% refers to the yearly average or to the end of the year.
How has the forecast changed since spring?
In the April edition of the World Economic Outlook, the Fund projected Serbian growth of 2.8% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. In June, after talks with Serbian officials, the estimate for this year stayed at about 2.8%, while the one for next year was raised to 4%.
The October revision therefore changes only 2026: the forecast is 0.5 percentage points higher than in April and June. The 2027 estimate stayed at the 4% set in June, which is 0.5 points above the April figure.
What does the Fund forecast for the world and the big economies?
According to the new forecast, the world economy grows 3.1% this year. In July the Fund projected 3%, and growth in 2025 was 3.5%. The forecast for 2027 is 3.4%. Global inflation is put at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027.
Other figures from the report:
- advanced economies: 2.1% this year, after 2.0% in 2025, then slowing to 1.9% next year
- developing economies: 3.7% this year, after 4.5% in 2025, then 4.4% in 2027
- euro area, 21 countries: 1.1% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027
- China: 4.5% this year, after 5% in 2025
- United States: the Fund cites steady growth of 2.3%
Growth is becoming more concentrated: according to the report, 32 countries account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 in April. Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s research director, told reporters in Bangkok: “The outlook is very uneven.”
The report explains it this way:
“Economic growth is shifting across countries depending on their exposure to the supply shock caused by the war and the strength of the surrounding demand for artificial intelligence.”
For Europe as a whole, the report says average real GDP growth last year was 1.6%, while consumer prices rose 6.2%.
What assumptions sit behind the numbers?
The forecast assumes that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue and that growth in demand for artificial intelligence stays moderate. The Fund names energy-importing countries that are not part of technology-related value chains as the most exposed.
The risks, the report says, lean mostly toward weaker growth: a further escalation of the conflict, a shift in expectations about artificial intelligence, new trade disputes and problems in public finances. A more favorable scenario is possible if investment in artificial intelligence accelerates, if its use brings bigger productivity gains, or if geopolitical and trade tensions ease for good.
For governments facing a cost-of-living crisis, the Fund recommends against distorting price signals with broad subsidies, and in favor of targeting temporary cash support at the most vulnerable households.
The focus of the Bangkok meetings is the effect of artificial intelligence on employment. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described it on Monday as “a slow-motion tsunami, but a tsunami nonetheless.”
