Serbia's Q3 GDP Grows 4%, Beating the 3% Budget Target
The Statistical Office's flash estimate shows real growth of 4% against the same quarter of 2025. The budget assumed 3%, and the detailed calculation is due November 30.
Serbia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 4% in the third quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter last year, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (RZS) said on November 2 in its flash estimate. According to the timestamp on N1, the news appeared at 12:33.
The 2026 national budget projected GDP growth of 3%, so the published result is one percentage point above plan.
How does 4% compare with the first and second quarters?
Growth in the first two quarters, according to figures carried by the newsrooms of Danas and N1, was as follows:
- first quarter: 3.2%
- second quarter: 3.8%
- third quarter: 4.0% (flash estimate)
All three rates are measured against the same quarter of the previous year, so they show acceleration on an annual basis, not growth from one quarter to the next. The third quarter is 0.8 percentage points above the first and 0.2 above the second.
What did the president announce in early October?
President Aleksandar Vucic spoke about the flash forecast for the third quarter in early October, during a visit to the Radovanovic household in the village of Krusar, in the municipality of Cuprija. His remarks were relayed by Tanjug. He said:
“I have one piece of good news. The flash forecast for the third quarter is around 3.5, I hope it could even be 3.6 for the third quarter, so we will certainly be at around 3.5, which is unexpected growth for this year.”
Vucic added that this would allow everything to be in the best order next year, as he put it, when it comes to raising wages and pensions. The official RZS estimate is 0.5 percentage points higher than that forecast, and 0.4 points higher than the 3.6% the president had hoped for.
The bulletin “Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends” (MAT), published by the Economics Institute in Belgrade and the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, estimated on October 8 that real GDP rose by about 3.5% in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period last year. That figure covers a different time frame from the quarterly one, so it cannot be compared directly with 4%.
When is the detailed calculation due?
The flash estimate is a first, approximate figure. RZS said it will publish the calculation of quarterly GDP for the third quarter of 2026, more detailed and at lower levels of aggregation, on November 30 in a release titled “Quarterly Gross Domestic Product”. The flash estimate releases contain no data by sector, so the structure of growth will only become visible from that calculation.
