EU Gas Storage Falls Short by Up to 14 Billion Cubic Meters
The institute IEEFA estimates the European Union could be short by up to 14 billion cubic meters of gas this winter, with storage at its lowest level since 2011.
European Union gas storage holds less gas in early October than at any point since records began in 2011, and that could leave the bloc short by up to 14 billion cubic meters this winter. The estimate was published on Friday, October 9, by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a US-based organization, and reported by Brussels-based Politico.
A shortfall of 14 billion cubic meters is equal to about 7% of demand compared with last winter. By the same estimate, that is enough energy to supply between 10 and 12 million European households.
How full is EU gas storage?
The sources do not agree on the exact figure. Tanjug and Turkey’s Anadolu Agency put storage at just over 70%, while Oilprice, citing the IEEFA analysis, gives about 73% for early October. All three agree on one point: it is the lowest level for this time of year since measurement began in 2011.
Anadolu adds the reason. High prices pushed traders to sell gas over the summer instead of injecting it into storage ahead of winter. Winter demand for gas has been rising for two years while imports have stayed largely flat, so the bloc leans more and more on what it has stored.
What does ENTSOG say?
A day earlier, on Thursday, October 8, ENTSOG, the European network of transmission system operators for gas, released its winter outlook for 2026/2027. The math is similar: in a winter colder than usual, even with optimal inflows of liquefied natural gas, consumption would have to fall by 7%.
Under the cold scenario, storage could drop to just 11% of capacity. To bring it back to 30% by the end of winter, gas equal to 7% of demand would have to be curbed or withheld from consumers.
Why is the Strait of Hormuz at the center of this?
The cause lies in the liquefied gas market. According to Oilprice, the war in Iran has trapped about a fifth of the world’s liquefied gas supply behind the Strait of Hormuz, and most of Qatar’s exports are still offline. Gas prices in Europe have jumped since early March and reflect a squeezed global market.
Ana Marija Haler-Makarevic, lead energy analyst on IEEFA’s European team, said the current pressure on storage shows that Europe’s dependence on gas is becoming a growing liability. We relay her view in indirect speech because the statement is available only through Oilprice, which does not put it in quotation marks.
How much would making up the gap cost?
IEEFA calculates that covering the shortfall with additional liquefied gas at current prices would cost three billion euros more, which is 12% above last year’s cost for the same volumes. Anadolu reports that the EU could turn to additional imports of liquefied gas, mainly from the United States.
Regulation adds to the pressure:
- according to Oilprice, a full ban on imports of Russian liquefied gas into the EU takes effect on January 1, 2027
- according to Anadolu, IEEFA estimates that the ban on long-term contracts for Russian liquefied gas, which takes effect in January, would cut imports by a further seven billion cubic meters
- colder spells during the winter would put additional strain on supply
Oilprice also reports the other side: decision makers and officials say Europe does not face an immediate gas shortage, but warn that prices will stay far higher than in the past two years for as long as the Hormuz crisis lasts.
In an earlier story, we reported on the price of gas and on Serbia holding 707 million cubic meters in reserve. The European shortfall is the other side of the same story: the same market, the same prices, different stocks.
