Dacic Below Threshold in CeSID Projection, 3.7% at RIK
The CeSID and Ipsos projection on 56 percent of the sample gives Ivica Dacic's list 2.3 percent, the first RIK count from 203 polling stations 3.7. Figures are not final.
The “Ivica Dacic - Stability Factor” list is below the three percent electoral threshold in a projection released tonight by Ipsos and the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID), while in the first count of the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) the same list is above it. Both figures come from incomplete samples and neither is the final result of the snap parliamentary elections, so each one below is attributed to whoever announced it.
What the CeSID and Ipsos projection shows
According to a post on CeSID’s official account on X, carried by Tanjug, the projection is based on 56 percent of the sample processed. It gives the “Student List - Students Win” 52 percent of the vote, “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia” 39.3 percent, and Ivica Dacic’s list 2.3 percent. All other lists are under one percent.
The seat allocation in the same projection looks like this:
- Student List - Students Win: 139 seats
- Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia: 104 seats
- Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians - Balint Pasztor: three seats
- Albanian Coalition - Koalicioni Shqiptar: two seats
- Rasim Ljajic - Human (SDP-CDP): one seat
- SDA of Sandzak - Guardians of Sandzak: one seat
According to the same post, all other lists won no seats. That makes 250 seats in the National Assembly in total.
Why RIK shows a different percentage
The first RIK count, with 203 polling stations processed, gives Ivica Dacic’s list 3.7 percent, while every other list is under two percent, Tanjug reports. That announcement has United Serbia ahead of the Student List, the reverse of the order in the CeSID and Ipsos projection. The gap comes from measuring different sets: one figure is a projection on 56 percent of the sample, the other a sum from the 203 stations that had been processed at that point.
Crta: only two lists and the minorities
Crta’s program director Rasa Nedeljkov said tonight that the Student List won 51.47 percent of the vote and “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia” 40.42 percent. According to him, no other electoral list crossed the threshold apart from the minority lists. Invalid ballots, he said, came to 1.55 percent. Nedeljkov added that citizens have a right to celebrate, but called on everyone to do so with dignity.
This is a third figure for the same evening and should not be mixed up with the previous two: Crta has its own sample, CeSID and Ipsos have theirs, and RIK counts polling stations in the order the records arrive.
What 2.3 percent would mean for the SPS
Nova.rs reported at 22:03 that the Socialist Party of Serbia, based on current information, won 2.3 percent. If that percentage is confirmed, Nova.rs writes, the SPS will for the first time since 1990 have no deputies in the Serbian parliament. The same outlet recalls that the SPS had 6.55 percent of the vote and 18 seats in 2023, and 11.44 percent and 31 seats in 2022. From those numbers it calculates a drop of 4.25 percentage points against 2023 and 9.14 against 2022.
Nova.rs also cites 138 seats for the Student List, while the CeSID post carried by Tanjug has 139. The number of United Serbia seats, 104, is the same in both sources.
Where sources differ on the minority lists
Espreso published at 22:05 a preliminary allocation of the 250 seats, in which three Bosniak lists get one seat each. The CeSID and Ipsos projection gives one seat each to Ljajic’s list and to the SDA of Sandzak, and two to the Albanian Coalition, so the two allocations do not match. Espreso warns that changes are possible once final results arrive, because the processing of polling stations is still under way, and with narrow margins and minority lists the allocation may be corrected until the official summary report is published.
What the pre-election poll showed
On October 22, Ipsos released a survey conducted from October 20 to 22 on a sample of 3,624 respondents. The poll was commissioned by the “Aleksandar Vucic - United Serbia” list, which Ipsos states itself in its release. According to that poll, three days before the vote, United Serbia had 47.4 percent, the Student List 40 percent, and Ivica Dacic’s list 3.2 percent, with a confidence interval of 2.5 to 3.9 percent.
Behind them in the same survey were Dr. Milos Jovanovic’s Authentic Right with 1.7 percent, the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians with 1.2, European Serbia of Marinika Tepic and Zdravko Ponos with 0.8, Bogoljub Karic BK with 0.6, Rasim Ljajic with 0.5, and the Albanian Coalition and SDA of Sandzak with 0.3 percent each. Along with the results, Ipsos cautioned that some voters decide in the last few days, so votes could shift between blocs of similar parties.
Compared with that poll, tonight’s projection gives Dacic’s list 0.9 points less, and the first RIK count 0.5 points more. RIK will announce the final percentage once all polling stations have been processed.
