CeSID and Ipsos to release turnout figures at five times
CeSID expects its first estimates of the snap parliamentary election results between 9:30 and 10:00 p.m., while Crta will have 2,500 observers at 500 polling stations.
CeSID (Center for Free Elections and Democracy) and Ipsos Serbia will publish turnout estimates for the snap parliamentary election in five rounds on Sunday, October 25, and CeSID expects its first estimates of the results between roughly 9:30 and 10:00 p.m. CeSID released the schedule on Friday, October 23, during the election silence.
When are the turnout estimates released?
The turnout figures will come out at 9:00 a.m., 11:00 a.m., 2:00 p.m., 5:00 p.m. and 7:00 p.m. Polling stations open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m., so the last update arrives an hour before closing.
The figures are based on a stratified sample of 750 polling stations. Turnout data is collected there during the day, and results data in the evening. Details of the sample are available on the CeSID website.
What happens after the polls close?
CeSID expects the first result estimates at around 9:30 to 10:00 p.m. After that, the data is updated live, all the way to a preliminary estimate of the results and a projection of how seats will be distributed.
CeSID publishes its data on its website, on social media, in press releases and in statements to the media. Throughout election day it will also report irregularities spotted by its observers. It will present the preliminary and final reports of its observation mission after the vote.
What will Crta and the Republic Electoral Commission publish?
The Republic Electoral Commission (RIK) traditionally publishes turnout data at several points during election day. The Crta observation mission has its own schedule.
On October 25, Crta will have 2,500 observers at 500 polling stations, which form a random and representative sample for the whole of Serbia. The figures were given at a press conference on Wednesday, October 21, by Rasa Nedeljkov of Crta. Observers carry Republic Electoral Commission accreditation and mission badges so citizens can recognize them, and teams at Crta’s headquarters support them throughout the day.
Crta holds press conferences at 12:00 p.m., 4:30 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. The time of the final conference, where the results estimate will be announced, depends on when data from the entire sample arrives. Crta will publish its preliminary assessment of election day and the quality of the voting on Monday, October 26. We wrote about the data the organization released during the campaign on October 21, in a report on the incidents it recorded.
How many voters are eligible, and where do they vote?
There are 6,450,523 eligible voters, with 8,210 polling stations in Serbia and 93 abroad, the Beta agency reports. Eighteen lists are running, and the threshold for entering parliament is three percent, while lists of national minorities benefit from a natural threshold.
The election silence runs from midnight between Thursday and Friday until polls close on Sunday at 8 p.m. The Law on the Election of Members of Parliament sets fines for violations, for both legal entities and individuals, and they apply to television, radio, print media and internet portals registered as media. That is why the first public result estimates, as CeSID has announced, will arrive only after the polling stations close.
